UFC Fight Night: Oddsmakers and fight experts split on Lemos-Jandiroba (2024)

Strawweight contender Virna Jandiroba looks to extend a three-fight winning streak when she faces Amanda Lemos in the main event at UFC Fight Night in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 5:30 p.m. ET o.n ESPN2/ESPN+).

Jandiroba (20-3) beat Loopy Godínez in her last fight. Each of her previous three wins have come by unanimous decision. Lemos (14-3-1) enters the bout following a unanimous decision win over Mackenzie Dern at UFC 298 in February.

Brett Okamoto spoke to Syndicate MMA coach John Wood to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity. All odds courtesy of ESPN BET.

Strawweight: Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba

John Wood, Syndicate MMA coach

How Lemos wins: She has the advantage in the stand-up, everywhere. She has more power, speed and variety. If she can keep it on the feet, she should be able to win that matchup. I've coached against Lemos in the past, and she has a lot of tools to worry about. I would make Jandiroba think about all of them. Mix things up and trust your offense. And the thing about Lemos, she's still going to have power in the fifth round. It doesn't wear off over the course of five rounds. She's going to be still throwing hard 25 minutes into this fight.

How Jandiroba wins: She has good pressure and will need it in this fight. Her stand-up can sometimes look a little forced, but she's game. She needs to put her head down and pressure Lemos in any way. Put her on the fence and keep her on her back foot. I don't see this fight ending early, so set a high pace. Even though Lemos still has power late, try to tire her out and grind out a five-round decision.

X factor: Cardio. Whoever has the better gas tank is winning this fight. The paths to victory are pretty straightforward. One wants to keep it standing; the other wants to use her grappling. As the rounds go on, who has the better gas tank to implement their will?

Prediction: Lemos by decision.

Betting analysis

Parker: Main event over 2.5 rounds (-170). Riding a three-fight win streak, Jandiroba will face her toughest opponent in her first main event in the UFC. Jandiroba, known for her world-class jujitsu, will look to take down her opponent as soon as possible. Over her past three fights, we have also seen an improvement in her striking, which can only help set up her takedowns against future opponents.

However, Lemos is no stranger to fighting jujitsu experts, as she defeated her last opponent, Mackenzie Dern. Where Lemos has the advantage is on the feet with her striking. She carries knockout power and has used her grappling defense to keep the fight standing. In five of her past six fights, Jandiroba has gone all three rounds, while Lemos in her previous five of six has all gone over the 2.5-round mark. As much as I see value in Lemos as the underdog (+120), the best play here is over 2.5 rounds.

Parker's best bets on the rest of the card

Editor's note: This section has been updated with the cancellation of the co-main event between middleweights Brad Tavares and JunYong Park.

Featherweight: Steve Garcia vs. Seungwoo Choi

Garcia to win by KO/TKO. Garica has become a must-see TV with his all-gas, no-brakes fighting style. He is riding a three-fight win streak with all the victories by KO/TKO, and with his next matchup against Choi, he will get No. 4. Choi is coming off a decision win, but he's been dropped at least once in his past five fights. Before his most recent win, he was on a three-fight losing streak, where he was finished twice. Look for Garica to land early and not allow Choi to recover.

Women's flyweight: Miranda Maverick vs. Dione Barbosa

Maverick to win by decision. After earning a contract via a first-round submission on "Dana White's Contender Series," Barbosa followed that up with her first official UFC win a couple of months ago, a unanimous decision against fellow UFC debutant Ernesta Kareckaite. Barbosa will now get a significant step up in competition, one stylistically not in her favor.

Enter Maverick, riding a two-fight win streak, most recently a decision win over veteran Andrea Lee. Maverick should have the edge everywhere. However, her sense of urgency to finish is just not there like when she was the blue-chip prospect earlier in her UFC career. Look for Maverick to play this one on the conservative side, as Barbosa is an aggressive striker with three submission wins. Maverick will utilize her wrestling and look to get a dominant decision win.